Within the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.
The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.
He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.
Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.
